How to compare AFL club needs and draft trades
A useful mock trade answers a specific football question. “Can this club reach the player it needs without sacrificing its next opportunity?” is more informative than “Can I make the points totals match?”
Define the need before choosing a target
Start with a role and a time horizon. A club seeking a developing key defender has a different problem from a club seeking an immediate replacement. Write down who already plays the role, who provides depth, and whether the need exists next season or further ahead.
Use the List Analyzer alongside the draft pool to inspect those questions. Contract information and list data can change. Treat a missing or uncertain field as a gap to check, rather than assuming it proves a vacancy.
Separate three kinds of value
| Lens | Question | What to compare |
|---|---|---|
| Selection access | Which prospects become reachable? | The players available at the early pick versus the later picks. |
| Bid capital | Can an aligned club cover a bid? | Eligible picks, the two-pick restriction, adjustment and deficit conditions. |
| List fit | What opportunity does the club give up? | Roles, list places, development time and future draft access. |
A worked exercise: one early chance or two later chances?
Use fictional clubs A and B
Club A owns pick 8. Club B owns picks 14 and 26 and wants to move up. In the simulator's table, those selections carry 1,443 points versus 1,024 + 621 = 1,645 points.
That gives the later package 202 more points. It does not prove Club A should accept. Club A might rate a prospect available at 8 much more highly than the options likely to last to 14, or might have room for only one extra draftee.
- Save the current scenario before making the deal.
- In one version, leave ownership unchanged and draft through pick 26.
- In the second, use Trade Simulator to exchange the picks and draft through the same part of the board.
- Compare the actual players selected, the remaining capital and the roles filled.
Keep the player pool, rules and your selection approach consistent. Otherwise you may be measuring a change in your drafting preferences rather than the effect of the trade.
Add future picks only after the current comparison
A future selection is tied to an uncertain finishing position. Test more than one outcome for that position rather than presenting one projected number as fixed. If a future first is also needed for a possible bidding deficit, that constraint belongs in the discussion.
The trade workspace supports player and pick packages across multiple clubs. Check the full movement summary so every asset has an origin and a destination. A deal that solves one club's problem can remove an important option for another.
Write a useful conclusion
Instead of calling a deal “fair” because it balances, state what each club receives and sacrifices. For example: “In this scenario, Club B gains access to its preferred prospect; Club A selects two players for two list needs. Club A loses access to the earlier tier and Club B loses its second selection.”
That is an explanation of an experiment. It is not a claim that a player wants to move, that clubs have negotiated, or that a trade complies with every real-world requirement. For confirmed movement, use official AFL and club announcements.
Check the result
Review ownership in the live board and the Results trade recap. Undo or load the baseline if you want to change the package. See the points guide for bidding arithmetic and methodology for the limits of trade values.